South Alabama vs Hawaii 12/1/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with South Alabama winning 45% of simulations, and Hawaii 55% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. South Alabama commits fewer turnovers in 44% of simulations and they go on to win 56% when they take care of the ball. Hawaii wins 67% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Demetre Baker is averaging 74 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (30% chance) then he helps his team win 61%. Will Gregory is averaging 43 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (27% chance) then he helps his team win 69%.
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